Sensitivity of Simulated Boreal Fire Dynamics to Uncertainties in Climate Drivers

Projected climatic warming has direct implications for future disturbance regimes, particularly fire-dominated ecosystems at high latitudes, where climate warming is expected to be most dramatic. It is important to ascertain the potential range of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, which is relevant to making projections of the response of the Earth system and to decisions by policymakers and land managers. Computer simulation models that explicitly model climate–fire relationships represent an important research tool for understanding and projecting future relationships. Retrospective model analyses of ecological models are important for evaluating how to effectively couple ecological models of fire dynamics with climate system models. This paper uses a transient landscape-level model of vegetation dynamics, Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO), to evaluate * Corresponding author address: T. Scott Rupp, Department of Forest Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 368 O’Neill Bldg., Fairbanks, AK 99775 E-mail address: [email protected] Earth Interactions • Volume 11 (2007) • Paper No. 3 • Page 1